Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3

14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
3...d5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.8%

40%55%
Floor46.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.5%.

Measured over 14K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 14K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
14K
Best context
50.9% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Worst context
44.1% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
94.4%
Draws
5.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.3% at 0-999, 49.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (51 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (50 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (129 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 61.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (122 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (250 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (111 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (254 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (611 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (204 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (25 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (441 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (1,163 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (337 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (576 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (2,031 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (607 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (46 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (754 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (2,100 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (507 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (949 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (1,293 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (284 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (436 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.0% expected score (174 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Variations (5)
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Original Defense
49.9%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Ultra-Delayed Exchange Variation
49.7%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with Nf3
50.8%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation, Modern Defense
49.3%
Neo-Grünfeld Defense: Classical Variation
51.0%
Analyze Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 scores 46.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.1% and 47.5% — from 14K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
14K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 win rate?

Playing the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3, Black wins 44.0%, draws 5.6% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 14K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 perform best?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 48.2% (1.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 46.2% in Blitz (7.8K games) against 48.6% in Rapid (2.1K games).

How sharp is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 has a sharpness score of 94.4 (decisive), meaning 94.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 214 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.9%, draws 2.3% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 490 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.7%, draws 5.7% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 42.3%, draws 7.1% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.7%, draws 8.5% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 615 Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.2%, draws 6.0% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.2%. It rests on 7.8K Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 45.3%, draws 6.5% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.

What is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 47.2%, draws 7.8% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 133 Lichess games.

Is the Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 a good opening?

The Neo-Grünfeld Defense: with g3 is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.0% of its games and loses 50.4%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.