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King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation

4.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score52.2%Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 52.2%Based on 4.3M games
0%52.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 52.2%
Outcome Distribution
50.0%4.2%45.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Nc6
King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation
Analyzen=4.3M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 52.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 52.1% and 52.2%), based on 4.3M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Bc5?! · Black wins: 54.6% · n=2.4M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.6% win rate (649,679 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.7% win rate (757,436 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.7% win rate (882,516 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.8% win rate (894,572 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.4% win rate (668,252 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.7% win rate (334,292 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.6% win rate (114,514 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.9% win rate (36,612 games)
  • 2500+: 40.3% win rate (4,824 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in UltraBullet (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.5% win rate (9,540 games)
  • Bullet: 49.9% win rate (955,611 games)
  • Blitz: 49.6% win rate (2,152,261 games)
  • Rapid: 50.8% win rate (1,170,324 games)
  • Classical: 52.8% win rate (54,961 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (868 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (109,535 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (316,414 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (220,381 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (2,481 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (1,917 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (150,651 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (378,166 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (219,410 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (7,292 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (2,784 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (178,728 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (443,926 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (244,827 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (12,251 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (1,858 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (178,480 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (455,618 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (238,028 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (20,588 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (1,124 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (147,552 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (340,910 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (168,747 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (9,919 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (721 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (103,548 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (160,571 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (67,408 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (2,044 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.1% expected score (185 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (56,432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (47,153 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (10,436 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (308 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (83 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (26,776 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (8,641 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,044 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (68 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (3,909 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (862 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 76.1% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Knight Opening
59.8%
Variations (1)
King's Knight Opening: Konstantinopolsky
47.5%
Analyze King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate?

The King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.7%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation perform best?

The King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 47.1% win rate for white (668K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (49.6%) outperforms Classical (41.8%) by 7.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation?

The King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 42.9%-43.1%) win rate for white, based on 650K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 757K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 883K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 46.0%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 895K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 668K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.3%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 334K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 115K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 44.8% (90% CI: 43.7%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 14.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.5%) win rate for white (9.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.5%) win rate for white (956K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.0%) win rate for white (2.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.1%) win rate for white (1.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a 41.8% (90% CI: 41.4%-42.1%) win rate for white (55K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation a good opening?

The King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.7%-45.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.