King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation
4.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 4.3M games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.3M games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 4.3M
- Best context
- 61.4% at 0-999 Classical
- Worst context
- 44.8% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.2% at 0-999, 53.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (868 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (109,535 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (316,414 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (220,381 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (2,481 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (1,917 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (150,651 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (378,166 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (219,410 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (7,292 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.2% expected score (2,784 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (178,728 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (443,926 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (244,827 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (12,251 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (1,858 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (178,480 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (455,618 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (238,028 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.8% expected score (20,588 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (1,124 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (147,552 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (340,910 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (168,747 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (9,919 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (721 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (103,548 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (160,571 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (67,408 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (2,044 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.1% expected score (185 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (56,432 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (47,153 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (10,436 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (308 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (83 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (26,776 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (8,641 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,044 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (68 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (3,909 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (862 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (43 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 76.1% expected score (10 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation scores 52.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.1% and 52.2% — from 4.3M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 4.3M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate?
Playing the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation, Black wins 50.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 4.3M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation perform best?
The King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 54.8% (650K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 51.8% in Blitz (2.2M games) against 53.4% in Rapid (1.2M games).
How sharp is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation?
The King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 52.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 650K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 757K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 883K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 895K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 668K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.7%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 334K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 48.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 115K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.9%, draws 5.7% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.3%, draws 14.8% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.5%, draws 1.8% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 956K Lichess games.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 49.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 2.2M Lichess games.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 50.8%, draws 5.2% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 1.2M Lichess games.
What is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 52.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 41.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 55K Lichess games.
Is the King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation a good opening?
The King's Knight Opening: Normal Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 50.0% of its games and loses 45.7%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.