3.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a 49.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.1% and 51.1%), based on 3.0K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 39% → 51%
Best in Classical (60%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 56.7% win rate for white (100 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (49.4%) outperforms Rapid (47.5%) by 1.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a 56.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-64.6%) win rate for white, based on 100 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 44.0%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 160 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 39.2%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 169 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 42.2%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 280 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 43.2%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 523 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 42.8%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 885 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 650 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 44.0%-58.8%) win rate for white, based on 122 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 46.7%-52.2%) win rate for white (900 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 44.1%-48.1%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 43.2%-51.9%) win rate for white (355 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.4% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.