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French Defense: Exchange Variation

15M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.1%Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 50.1%Based on 15M games
0%50.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 50.1%
Outcome Distribution
47.7%4.8%47.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nc3
French Defense: Exchange Variation
Analyzen=15M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.8%

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.1% and 50.1%), based on 15M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.6% win rate (249,997 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.8% win rate (603,596 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.6% win rate (1,261,298 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.2% win rate (2,321,569 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.6% win rate (3,481,386 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.1% win rate (3,821,794 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.3% win rate (2,281,585 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.1% win rate (919,648 games)
  • 2500+: 50.0% win rate (143,603 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.2% win rate (25,853 games)
  • Bullet: 47.5% win rate (5,952,212 games)
  • Blitz: 47.8% win rate (7,265,309 games)
  • Rapid: 48.0% win rate (1,774,232 games)
  • Classical: 46.5% win rate (66,870 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.8% expected score (440 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (86,865 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (114,032 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (48,332 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (328 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (1,214 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (237,026 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (270,265 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (93,484 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (1,607 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (2,971 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (486,212 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (590,551 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (176,681 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (4,883 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (6,169 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (836,493 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (1,153,878 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (311,434 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (13,595 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (7,057 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (1,154,173 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,840,119 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (458,087 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (21,950 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (4,576 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (1,311,230 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2,027,701 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (459,059 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (19,228 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (2,226 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (1,078,152 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (1,003,476 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (193,116 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (4,615 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (1,047 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (637,783 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (247,243 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (32,956 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (619 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.0% expected score (153 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (124,278 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (18,044 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (1,083 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (45 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Continuations (4)
French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubov Variation
51.5%
French Defense: Exchange Variation, Bogoljubow Variation
49.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation, Monte Carlo Variation
49.6%
French Defense: Exchange Variation, Svenonius Variation
47.0%
Analyze French Defense: Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 15M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Exchange Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.0% win rate for white (144K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (48.0%) outperforms Classical (46.5%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Exchange Variation?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.8%) win rate for white, based on 250K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 604K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.6%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.8M Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.2%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 920K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 144K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.7%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.5%) win rate for white (6.0M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.8%-47.8%) win rate for white (7.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.1%) win rate for white (1.8M Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the French Defense: Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Exchange Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.8%) win rate for white (67K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

Is the French Defense: Exchange Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Exchange Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-47.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.