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French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit

858K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.6%Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.7%Based on 858K games
0%52.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 52.7%
Outcome Distribution
50.8%3.6%45.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bd3
French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit
Analyzen=858K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 52.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.5% and 52.7%), based on 858K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +13.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.9% win rate (3,738 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.1% win rate (17,002 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.7% win rate (44,071 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.0% win rate (92,248 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.2% win rate (172,541 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.5% win rate (239,235 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.3% win rate (189,573 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.8% win rate (83,732 games)
  • 2500+: 54.9% win rate (15,701 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in UltraBullet (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.0% win rate (83 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (234,656 games)
  • Blitz: 50.5% win rate (485,770 games)
  • Rapid: 50.5% win rate (130,843 games)
  • Classical: 49.1% win rate (6,489 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (1,712 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (1,676 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (348 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 26.8% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (6,637 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (8,180 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (2,153 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (15,150 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (22,075 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (6,693 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (135 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (26,174 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (49,108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (16,295 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (648 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (39,334 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (100,399 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (30,825 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (1,973 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (51,388 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (143,590 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (41,593 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (2,661 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (48,286 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (113,919 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (26,408 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (955 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (34,597 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (42,661 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (6,367 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (104 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (11,378 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (4,162 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.3% expected score (161 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Continuations (3)
French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Hector Variation
54.7%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Main Line
51.4%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit, Sørensen Variation
56.1%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 858K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.9% win rate for white (16K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.8%) outperforms UltraBullet (42.0%) by 9.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 44K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 92K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 173K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 239K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 190K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.5%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 84K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.3%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.0%) win rate for white (235K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.6%) win rate for white (486K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.7%) win rate for white (131K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.1%) win rate for white (6.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Milner-Barry Gambit is statistically favors white with a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.