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Dutch Defense: Classical Variation

518K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.5%Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 51.6%Based on 518K games
0%51.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.4% – 51.6%
Outcome Distribution
49.1%4.7%46.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...d6
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
Analyzen=518K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 51.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.4% and 51.6%), based on 518K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~51%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.6% win rate (6,140 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.8% win rate (13,975 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.8% win rate (28,685 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.3% win rate (56,508 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.4% win rate (90,766 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.4% win rate (118,632 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.4% win rate (114,811 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.9% win rate (76,879 games)
  • 2500+: 50.8% win rate (11,676 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.4% win rate (640 games)
  • Bullet: 48.8% win rate (173,951 games)
  • Blitz: 49.2% win rate (281,074 games)
  • Rapid: 49.5% win rate (59,477 games)
  • Classical: 47.6% win rate (2,930 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,893 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (3,292 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (942 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (34 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (5,085 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (6,797 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (2,028 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.3% expected score (76 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (9,760 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (14,993 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (3,729 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (127 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.3% expected score (170 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (17,760 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (30,606 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (7,579 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (393 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 59.5% expected score (245 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (27,639 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (49,279 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (12,830 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (773 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.4% expected score (58 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (33,565 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (67,086 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (16,866 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (1,057 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.8% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (37,468 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (65,215 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11,644 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (460 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.9% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (33,128 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (39,954 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (3,698 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.0% expected score (77 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (7,653 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (3,852 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (161 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 63.3% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Continuations (7)
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Blackburne Attack
51.4%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation
48.5%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Huisl Variation
45.7%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation
50.8%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line
47.1%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line
49.7%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation
49.3%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Classical Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 518K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.9% win rate for white (77K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (53.4%) outperforms Classical (47.6%) by 5.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.0%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 91K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 119K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 115K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 77K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 10.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-56.6%) win rate for white (640 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.0%) win rate for white (174K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.4%) win rate for white (281K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.9%) win rate for white (59K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.1%-49.1%) win rate for white (2.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.1% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.