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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind

55K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.1%Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 53.4%Based on 55K games
0%53.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.7% – 53.4%
Outcome Distribution
49.8%6.4%43.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.c4
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind
Analyzen=55K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.4%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 53.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.7% and 53.4%), based on 55K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.5% win rate (553 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.7% win rate (1,497 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.1% win rate (2,706 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.7% win rate (3,970 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.5% win rate (5,564 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.9% win rate (8,435 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.9% win rate (14,409 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.5% win rate (14,455 games)
  • 2500+: 46.6% win rate (3,290 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Bullet (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 49.2% win rate (11,204 games)
  • Blitz: 49.8% win rate (34,065 games)
  • Rapid: 50.7% win rate (9,157 games)
  • Classical: 52.8% win rate (452 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.2% expected score (162 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (302 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (86 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (364 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (836 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (288 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (384 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (1,626 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (676 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 73.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (562 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (2,025 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (1,306 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (77 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (757 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (3,095 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (1,577 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (135 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,223 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (5,253 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (1,841 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (118 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (2,229 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (10,121 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (1,990 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (69 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (3,396 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (9,750 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (1,290 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (2,127 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (1,057 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.9% expected score (103 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Continuations (3)
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Geller Line
48.9%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Paulsen Line
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind, Robatsch Line
50.0%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 55K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.5% win rate for white (14K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.7%) outperforms Bullet (49.2%) by 1.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 44.5% (90% CI: 41.0%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 553 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 48.7% (90% CI: 46.6%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.4%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 8.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.2%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 17.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.0%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.3%-50.2%) win rate for white (34K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.6%) win rate for white (9.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind has a 52.8% (90% CI: 49.0%-56.7%) win rate for white (452 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.2%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Maróczy Bind is statistically favors white with a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.