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Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit

2.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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2...c5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.4%

45%55%
Floor48.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.2M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.2M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.2M
Best context
53.7% at 1200-1399 Classical
Worst context
44.9% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
95.9%
Draws
4.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +0.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...h5 · Black wins: 48.1% · 1.3M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 48.1% at 0-999, 39.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (72 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (19,071 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (21,484 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (6,499 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (50 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (203 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (53,722 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (64,900 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (18,978 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (213 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.9% expected score (317 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (96,810 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (138,023 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (42,870 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (975 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.8% expected score (512 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (130,204 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (210,921 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (70,951 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (2,699 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (470 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (140,976 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (245,631 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (80,002 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (3,515 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (220 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (122,486 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (230,006 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (67,451 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (2,972 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (73 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (81,232 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (141,434 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (33,756 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (915 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (49,083 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (66,464 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (9,704 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (164 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (11,879 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (8,824 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (386 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 31.1% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Pawn Game
50.0%
Variations (5)
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System
51.6%
Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense
49.2%
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation
50.8%
Queen's Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation
51.1%
Queen's Pawn Game: Colle System
50.8%
Continuations (2)
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit, Morris Countergambit Accepted
49.8%
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit, Morris Countergambit
49.9%
Analyze Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit scores 48.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.3% and 48.4% — from 2.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate?

Playing the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit, Black wins 46.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 2.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit perform best?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 48.7% (257K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.3% in Blitz (1.1M games) against 49.0% in Rapid (331K games).

How sharp is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 47K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 46.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 138K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 46.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 279K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 415K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 471K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.3%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 423K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 257K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.4%, draws 6.4% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.7%. It rests on 125K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.0%, draws 15.5% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 46.8%, draws 1.5% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 705K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.0%, draws 4.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 331K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 47.6%, draws 6.8% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit a good opening?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System, Steinitz Countergambit is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.3% of its games and loses 49.6%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.