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Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense

19M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
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h8
g
f
e
d
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b
a
1...g6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.9%

45%55%
Floor48.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 19M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 19M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
19M
Best context
61.8% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context
35.7% at 2500+ Rapid
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
96.2%
Draws
3.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Nh6 · Black wins: 49.4% · 2.6M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 55.3% at 0-999, 44.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (1,008 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (142,900 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (211,405 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (64,636 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (441 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (3,156 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (390,394 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (470,945 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (119,683 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (1,831 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (10,151 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (866,755 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (976,005 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (215,579 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (5,840 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (28,409 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,444,689 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (1,580,676 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (337,728 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (12,593 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (42,200 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (1,922,670 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (1,933,485 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (392,546 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (13,331 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (29,277 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (2,004,020 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (1,560,382 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (290,927 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (7,868 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (13,992 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (1,555,407 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (709,051 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (92,992 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (1,362 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (5,897 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (1,103,032 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (252,443 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (15,389 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (171 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (526 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (282,945 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (22,099 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (517 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Pawn Game
50.0%
Variations (5)
Queen's Pawn Game: Accelerated London System
51.6%
Queen's Pawn Game: Chigorin Variation
50.8%
Queen's Pawn Game: Zukertort Variation
51.1%
Queen's Pawn Game: Colle System
50.8%
Queen's Pawn Game: London System
50.9%
Analyze Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense scores 48.9% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 48.9% — from 19M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
19M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate?

Playing the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 19M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense perform best?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 52.7% (420K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.7% in Blitz (7.7M games) against 48.9% in Rapid (1.5M games).

How sharp is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 420K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 986K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 2.1M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.9%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 3.4M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.0%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 4.3M Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 3.9M Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 2.4M Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.1%, draws 4.9% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 1.4M Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 44.1%, draws 6.3% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 306K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 47.9%, draws 2.3% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 135K Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 47.6%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 9.7M Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 7.7M Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games.

What is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 46.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 43K Lichess games.

Is the Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense a good opening?

The Queen's Pawn Game: Modern Defense is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.0% of its games and loses 49.2%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.