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Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation

183K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.0%Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 54.2%Based on 183K games
0%54.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.8% – 54.2%
Outcome Distribution
51.6%4.7%43.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Bxf6
Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation
Analyzen=183K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 54.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.8% and 54.2%), based on 183K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +17.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.3% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.1% win rate (1,569 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.7% win rate (6,314 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.7% win rate (14,871 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.6% win rate (29,313 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.5% win rate (45,693 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.4% win rate (50,510 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.7% win rate (25,224 games)
  • 2200-2499: 56.5% win rate (8,921 games)
  • 2500+: 51.0% win rate (613 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (54%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.7% win rate (700 games)
  • Bullet: 54.0% win rate (62,520 games)
  • Blitz: 51.1% win rate (95,192 games)
  • Rapid: 47.5% win rate (23,592 games)
  • Classical: 43.7% win rate (1,024 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (726 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (713 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (125 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (2,399 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (3,081 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (818 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 64.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (4,718 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (7,700 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (2,369 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (58 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (9,766 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (14,719 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (4,447 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.0% expected score (214 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (373 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (13,873 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (25,064 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (6,056 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (327 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (87 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (14,550 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (29,064 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (6,442 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (367 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (9,716 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (12,314 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (3,116 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (45 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 59.8% expected score (6,181 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.8% expected score (2,515 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (219 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (591 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 69.2% expected score (22 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 183K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 56.5% win rate for white (8.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (54.0%) outperforms Classical (43.7%) by 10.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.1%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 51K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 56.5% (90% CI: 55.7%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 47.7%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 613 Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-56.8%) win rate for white (700 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.6%-54.3%) win rate for white (63K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.4%) win rate for white (95K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.1%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation has a 43.7% (90% CI: 41.2%-46.3%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.