Source Lichess
White wins at least 7.5 more of every 100 games than it loses
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation keeps White's wins running +7.5% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 183K Lichess games. This gambit is effective. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | −3.3% | 49.1% | 2.5% | 48.4% | 1.6K |
| 1000-1199 | +0.6% | 49.7% | 3.2% | 47.1% | 6.3K |
| 1200-1399 | +3.8% | 50.7% | 3.6% | 45.6% | 15K |
| 1400-1599 | +3.9% | 50.6% | 3.7% | 45.7% | 29K |
| 1600-1799 | +6.6% | 51.5% | 4.4% | 44.1% | 46K |
| 1800-1999 | +7.5% | 51.4% | 5.5% | 43.1% | 51K |
| 2000-2199 | +9.9% | 52.7% | 5.5% | 41.8% | 25K |
| 2200-2499 | +17.2% | 56.5% | 5.8% | 37.7% | 8.9K |
| 2500+ | +2.7% | 51.0% | 7.2% | 41.7% | 613 |
At some ratings. White comes out ahead at 1000+; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
White wins 51.6% of Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation games, draws 4.7% and loses 43.7%. That rests on 183K games from Lichess.
2200-2499. There White wins at least 17.2 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
Blitz. For White, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is +7.0% in Blitz (95K games) and −0.1% in Rapid (24K games).
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show White coming out ahead is 0-999 in Bullet, 0-999 in Blitz, 0-999 in Rapid and 1200-1399 in Classical.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Modern Variation, Heral Variation is extremely sharp: 4.7% of its games are drawn, so 95.3% end with a winner.
At 1000+, where White comes out ahead. At the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
As Black, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 1000+, White still comes out ahead in these games; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show the gambit paying.
This rests on 183K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.