3.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has a 58.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 57.2% and 60.1%), based on 3.3K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Stable across ratings (~60%)
Best in Bullet (59%), worst in Blitz (51%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 58.2% win rate for white (431 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (58.8%) outperforms Blitz (50.6%) by 8.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has a sharpness score of 89.6 (moderately decisive), meaning 89.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has a 61.5% (90% CI: 53.7%-69.1%) win rate for white, based on 105 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has a 56.9% (90% CI: 52.3%-61.4%) win rate for white, based on 316 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has a 53.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 673 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 11.8% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has a 58.2% (90% CI: 54.2%-62.0%) win rate for white, based on 431 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 12.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has a 58.8% (90% CI: 56.3%-61.3%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.8%-52.3%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 12.0%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has a 58.5% (90% CI: 50.7%-66.2%) win rate for white (107 Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.4%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line is statistically favors white with a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.