Source Lichess
White wins at least 14.4% more often than loses
At All Ratings, Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line gives White a +14.4% minimum advantage (90% confidence). This gambit is effective.
| Rating | Min Adv | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1600-1799 | +14.7% | 61.5% | 7.0% | 31.5% | 105 |
| 1800-1999 | +11.4% | 56.9% | 6.8% | 36.4% | 316 |
| 2000-2199 | +9.3% | 53.6% | 8.4% | 38.0% | 673 |
| 2200-2499 | +9.3% | 50.7% | 11.8% | 37.5% | 1.8K |
| 2500+ | +20.8% | 58.2% | 12.1% | 29.7% | 431 |
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has no overall breakpoint in Lichess data, meaning White wins more than loses even at the highest rating brackets across all time controls. This is a statistically sound gambit at all levels analyzed.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.0%-54.9%) win rate for White overall, with a 10.4% draw rate and 36.2% loss rate. This is based on 3.3K games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line performs best at 2500+, where White has a minimum advantage of +20.8%. This means we're 90% confident White wins at least 20.8 percentage points more than they lose at this rating.
Bullet (+19.2% edge) outperforms Blitz (+9.7% edge) by 9.5 percentage points. Faster time controls typically favor gambits because opponents have less time to find accurate defenses.
Yes, significantly. Breakpoints by time control: Bullet: Never, Blitz: Never, Rapid: Never, Classical: Never. "Never" means the gambit remains viable through all rating brackets in that time control. Faster time controls typically extend viability.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line is sharp with only 10.4% draws—89.6% of games end decisively. This makes it an excellent choice when you need to play for a win rather than accept a draw.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line is viable at all rating levels in Lichess data. White maintains a statistical edge throughout. It's an excellent choice if you enjoy sharp, initiative-based play.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line is statistically challenging to defend at all levels. As Black, focus on quick development, early castling, and piece trades. Don't get greedy with extra material. Consider declining the gambit or finding a transposition if you're uncomfortable with sharp positions.
This analysis is based on 3.3K games from Lichess. All statistics include 90% confidence intervals. Generally, 300+ games provide statistically meaningful results. Rating-specific and time-control-specific breakdowns have their own sample sizes shown in the table above.