TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation

2.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.0%Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 52.0%Based on 2.0M games
0%52.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.9% – 52.0%
Outcome Distribution
50.0%4.0%46.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nf3
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation
Analyzen=2.0M
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 52.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.9% and 52.0%), based on 2.0M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 50%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.8% win rate (39,184 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.6% win rate (106,699 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.0% win rate (221,791 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.8% win rate (340,007 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.0% win rate (406,174 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.1% win rate (373,435 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.2% win rate (260,941 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.4% win rate (189,206 games)
  • 2500+: 50.4% win rate (49,218 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.8% win rate (4,661 games)
  • Bullet: 49.7% win rate (965,716 games)
  • Blitz: 50.2% win rate (820,032 games)
  • Rapid: 50.7% win rate (190,160 games)
  • Classical: 50.4% win rate (6,086 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (36 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (16,336 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (17,544 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (5,243 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.2% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (145 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (43,266 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (48,509 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (14,625 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (154 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.9% expected score (313 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (85,887 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (105,005 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (30,004 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (582 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (765 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (127,379 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (165,786 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (44,413 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.1% expected score (1,664 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (1,442 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (163,525 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (190,385 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (48,818 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (2,004 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (1,199 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (180,428 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (157,693 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (32,839 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (1,276 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.2% expected score (367 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (161,431 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (87,633 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (11,190 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (320 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (325 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (142,863 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (43,036 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (2,930 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 62.8% expected score (69 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (44,601 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (4,441 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (98 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
49.0%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
45.4%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Continuations (2)
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation
49.1%
Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation, Suttles Variation, Tal Gambit
45.9%
Analyze Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.0M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation perform best?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 50.4% win rate for white (189K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.8%) by 0.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 107K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 222K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 340K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 406K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 373K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 261K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 189K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 49K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.0%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.8%) win rate for white (966K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate for white (820K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.9%) win rate for white (190K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.4%) win rate for white (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

Is the Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Two Knights Variation is statistically balanced with a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.