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King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation

1.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.5%Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.6%Based on 1.0M games
0%52.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.4% – 52.6%
Outcome Distribution
49.9%5.1%45.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.Re1
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation
Analyzen=1.0M
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.1%

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 52.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.4% and 52.6%), based on 1.0M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.3% win rate (3,222 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.7% win rate (13,462 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.1% win rate (38,297 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.6% win rate (81,084 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.5% win rate (138,571 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.7% win rate (212,258 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.0% win rate (242,905 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.2% win rate (232,018 games)
  • 2500+: 51.3% win rate (64,751 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (51%), worst in UltraBullet (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.1% win rate (472 games)
  • Bullet: 49.8% win rate (361,366 games)
  • Blitz: 49.8% win rate (557,763 games)
  • Rapid: 50.8% win rate (102,263 games)
  • Classical: 51.4% win rate (4,704 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (1,795 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (1,183 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (235 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (6,267 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (5,935 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (1,231 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (14,209 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (19,476 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (4,509 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (73 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (94 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (23,743 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (44,816 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (11,989 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (442 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (151 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (36,296 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (79,019 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (21,789 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (1,316 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (117 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (56,817 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (123,607 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (29,974 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (1,743 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (69,366 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (150,220 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (22,366 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.0% expected score (917 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 65.6% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (104,379 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (117,773 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (9,665 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (180 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (48,494 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (15,734 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (505 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (16 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Indian Defense
48.1%
Variations (5)
King's Indian Defense: Accelerated Averbakh Variation
49.7%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation
55.2%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense
46.8%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Advance Variation
50.6%
King's Indian Defense: Averbakh Variation, Benoni Defense, Exchange Variation
49.1%
Continuations (10)
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Aronin-Taimanov Defense
48.4%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack
51.2%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Bayonet Attack, Sokolov's Line
56.2%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System
53.3%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Benko Attack
56.5%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Kozul Gambit
58.6%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Neo-Classical Line
54.8%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Classical System, Traditional Line
52.5%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Donner Defense
47.3%
King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation, Glek Defense
46.1%
Analyze King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.0M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation perform best?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (65K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (50.8%) outperforms UltraBullet (45.1%) by 5.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.8%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 81K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 139K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 212K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 243K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 232K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 41.3%-48.9%) win rate for white (472 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.9%) win rate for white (361K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.9%) win rate for white (558K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.0%) win rate for white (102K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.2%-52.6%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.3%.

Is the King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation a good opening?

The King's Indian Defense: Orthodox Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.