839K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 51.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.8% and 52.0%), based on 839K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 48% → 52%
Similar across time controls (~50%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 839K rated games from Lichess.
The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (6.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (50.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (50.4%) by -0.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 47.6% (90% CI: 45.9%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.3% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 30K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 77K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 170K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 275K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 195K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 50.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-54.6%) win rate for white (392 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.6%.
In Bullet games, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.1%) win rate for white (317K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.
In Blitz games, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.1%) win rate for white (442K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
In Rapid games, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.5%-50.1%) win rate for white (76K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.
In Classical games, the King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.4%-51.7%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.
The King's Indian Defense: Four Pawns Attack is statistically balanced with a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.