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French Defense: Carlson Gambit

216K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score48.8%Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 49.0%Based on 216K games
0%48.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.6% – 49.0%
Outcome Distribution
47.1%3.3%49.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Ne5
French Defense: Carlson Gambit
Analyzen=216K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 48.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.6% and 49.0%), based on 216K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -1.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.0% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.7% win rate (17,119 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.1% win rate (24,975 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.1% win rate (33,306 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.1% win rate (43,268 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.6% win rate (42,745 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (32,866 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.9% win rate (14,676 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.0% win rate (5,746 games)
  • 2500+: 49.1% win rate (1,231 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.7% win rate (4,414 games)
  • Bullet: 48.3% win rate (120,476 games)
  • Blitz: 45.7% win rate (69,871 games)
  • Rapid: 44.5% win rate (20,491 games)
  • Classical: 39.7% win rate (680 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (84 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (6,072 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (7,586 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (3,352 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (261 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (11,499 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (9,276 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (3,870 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (69 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.1% expected score (633 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (16,799 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (11,438 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (4,284 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (152 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (1,003 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (23,491 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (14,592 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (3,937 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (245 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.3% expected score (1,351 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (23,593 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (14,651 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (3,022 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (758 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (21,287 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (9,163 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (1,607 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.5% expected score (51 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (220 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (11,770 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (2,327 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (351 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (97 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (4,755 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (824 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.4% expected score (68 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,210 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Carlson Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate?

The French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 216K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Carlson Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Carlson Gambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 48.1% win rate for white (33K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (49.7%) outperforms Classical (39.7%) by 10.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit?

The French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.1%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 43K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 46.8%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-51.0%) win rate for white (4.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.6%) win rate for white (120K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.3%-46.0%) win rate for white (70K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.0%-45.1%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Carlson Gambit has a 39.7% (90% CI: 36.6%-42.8%) win rate for white (680 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

Is the French Defense: Carlson Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Carlson Gambit is statistically balanced with a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.