Source Lichess
White isn't shown winning more often than losing at this level
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, French Defense: Carlson Gambit keeps White's wins running −2.9% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 216K Lichess games. The games don't show this gambit paying at this level. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | −8.2% | 44.7% | 3.6% | 51.7% | 17K |
| 1000-1199 | −3.8% | 47.1% | 3.0% | 49.9% | 25K |
| 1200-1399 | −1.9% | 48.1% | 2.9% | 49.1% | 33K |
| 1400-1599 | −3.8% | 47.1% | 2.8% | 50.1% | 43K |
| 1600-1799 | −2.4% | 47.6% | 3.2% | 49.2% | 43K |
| 1800-1999 | −3.6% | 46.9% | 3.6% | 49.5% | 33K |
| 2000-2199 | −3.3% | 46.9% | 4.3% | 48.8% | 15K |
| 2200-2499 | −2.8% | 47.0% | 5.4% | 47.7% | 5.7K |
| 2500+ | −1.0% | 49.1% | 5.4% | 45.5% | 1.2K |
Not shown to be. White does not come out ahead at any rating we can see: its best Edge at worst, at 2500+, is −1.0%.
White wins 47.1% of French Defense: Carlson Gambit games, draws 3.3% and loses 49.6%. That rests on 216K games from Lichess.
No rating in these games shows it paying. White's Edge at worst is highest at 2500+: −1.0%, how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident.
Blitz. For White, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is −5.3% in Blitz (70K games) and −7.7% in Rapid (20K games). In neither do the games show White winning more than losing.
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show White coming out ahead is 0-999 in Bullet, 0-999 in Blitz, 0-999 in Rapid and 1000-1199 in Classical.
The French Defense: Carlson Gambit is extremely sharp: 3.3% of its games are drawn, so 96.7% end with a winner.
Not for the results: White does not come out ahead at any rating we can see.
As Black, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. White does not come out ahead with it at any rating we can see.
This rests on 216K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.