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Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation

1.5M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.1%Range (90% confident): 55.0% – 55.1%Based on 1.5M games
0%55.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.0% – 55.1%
Outcome Distribution
52.8%4.5%42.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.d4
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation
Analyzen=1.5M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.5%

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 55.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.0% and 55.1%), based on 1.5M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 48%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.5% win rate (259,868 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.1% win rate (286,476 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.5% win rate (281,678 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.2% win rate (250,296 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.1% win rate (191,674 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.4% win rate (127,362 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.9% win rate (61,892 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.5% win rate (26,371 games)
  • 2500+: 47.5% win rate (4,329 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~55%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.7% win rate (4,733 games)
  • Bullet: 52.4% win rate (493,195 games)
  • Blitz: 52.8% win rate (624,329 games)
  • Rapid: 53.2% win rate (352,940 games)
  • Classical: 55.1% win rate (14,749 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (304 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (58,002 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (121,173 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (79,688 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (701 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (710 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (73,758 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (124,486 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (85,307 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (2,215 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.5% expected score (1,024 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (80,407 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (118,816 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (77,545 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (3,886 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (1,347 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (82,348 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (105,775 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (55,936 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.2% expected score (4,890 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (755 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (77,100 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (78,373 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (33,268 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.9% expected score (2,178 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.4% expected score (409 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (61,560 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (49,137 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (15,509 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (747 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (124 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (36,813 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (19,945 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (4,892 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.6% expected score (118 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 71.2% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (19,323 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (6,185 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (789 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (3,884 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (439 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Glek System
47.9%
Four Knights Game: Gunsberg Variation
49.7%
Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit
52.7%
Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation
54.1%
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Continuations (6)
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit
51.9%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense
59.6%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Krause Gambit
55.4%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Krause Gambit, Leonhardt Defense
44.9%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit
56.9%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense
46.1%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.7%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 53.5% win rate for white (282K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (55.1%) outperforms Bullet (52.4%) by 2.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 260K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 286K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.4%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 282K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 250K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 192K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 127K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 62K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.5%-54.9%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.5%) win rate for white (493K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.7%-52.9%) win rate for white (624K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.3%) win rate for white (353K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.4%-55.8%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.7%-52.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.