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Four Knights Game: Italian Variation

12M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.7%Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 50.8%Based on 12M games
0%50.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.7% – 50.8%
Outcome Distribution
48.7%4.1%47.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Nf6
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
Analyzen=12M
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.1%

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 50.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.7% and 50.8%), based on 12M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.9% win rate (1,691,854 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.5% win rate (2,216,583 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.1% win rate (2,426,737 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.3% win rate (2,236,815 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.2% win rate (1,648,352 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.5% win rate (945,798 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.8% win rate (350,216 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.9% win rate (111,530 games)
  • 2500+: 48.8% win rate (18,093 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.1% win rate (11,154 games)
  • Bullet: 48.9% win rate (2,561,027 games)
  • Blitz: 48.7% win rate (5,396,749 games)
  • Rapid: 48.4% win rate (3,528,106 games)
  • Classical: 47.7% win rate (148,942 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (1,458 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (301,306 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (676,435 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (705,975 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (6,680 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.2% expected score (2,780 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (432,661 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (984,647 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (774,555 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (21,940 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (3,017 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (475,517 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (1,138,565 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (771,235 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (38,403 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (2,417 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (462,273 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,092,091 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (632,560 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (47,474 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (837 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (383,275 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (836,338 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (402,566 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.1% expected score (25,336 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (374 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (263,504 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (483,051 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (190,750 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (8,119 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (189 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (149,366 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (155,171 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (44,606 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (884 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.9% expected score (68 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (76,806 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (28,804 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (5,755 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (97 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (16,319 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (1,647 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (104 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Glek System
47.9%
Four Knights Game: Gunsberg Variation
49.7%
Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit
52.7%
Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation
54.1%
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit
44.0%
Continuations (1)
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit
44.0%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Italian Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 12M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Italian Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 49.5% win rate for white (2.2M games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (51.1%) outperforms Classical (47.7%) by 3.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation?

The Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7M Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.2M Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.2M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.6M Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 946K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 350K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 112K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.8%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.0%) win rate for white (2.6M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.7%) win rate for white (5.4M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-48.5%) win rate for white (3.5M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.9%) win rate for white (149K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Italian Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.