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Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation

1.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation is balanced for Black at 49.0% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score49.0%Based on 1.8M gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%49.0%55%
Tight estimate: 49.0% (±0.1%, huge sample)
Min adv-2.1%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=1.8M
Outcome Distribution
4...Bc5
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation
Analyzen=1.8M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 49.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.0% and 49.1%), based on 1.8M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.0% win rate (197,053 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.8% win rate (312,524 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.3% win rate (366,466 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.4% win rate (334,960 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.2% win rate (261,452 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.4% win rate (187,066 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.0% win rate (106,385 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.4% win rate (48,303 games)
  • 2500+: 40.0% win rate (9,392 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Blitz (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.8% win rate (1,730 games)
  • Bullet: 47.0% win rate (512,345 games)
  • Blitz: 46.8% win rate (856,665 games)
  • Rapid: 47.3% win rate (435,668 games)
  • Classical: 47.5% win rate (17,193 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.1% expected score (323 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (44,518 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (80,677 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (70,851 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (684 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.8% expected score (504 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (72,620 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (144,792 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (92,550 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (2,058 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.1% expected score (352 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (89,006 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (171,188 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (101,988 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (3,932 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (287 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (87,355 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (160,647 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (80,855 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (5,816 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 43.2% expected score (116 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (76,347 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (132,398 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (49,452 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (3,139 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (66 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (62,369 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (97,074 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (26,339 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (1,218 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (47 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (43,659 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (51,896 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (10,488 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (295 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (28,475 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (16,736 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (3,032 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (7,996 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (1,257 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (113 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 26.2% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted
51.9%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation
50.7%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation
52.8%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Double Spanish
49.6%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.8M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (9.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (47.3%) by 2.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation?

The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 197K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 313K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 366K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 335K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 261K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 187K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 106K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 48K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 45.3%-49.2%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.3%) win rate for white (512K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.0%) win rate for white (857K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.6%-47.8%) win rate for white (436K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.7%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.