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Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit

731K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.3%Range (90% confident): 54.2% – 54.4%Based on 731K games
0%54.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.2% – 54.4%
Outcome Distribution
52.7%3.2%44.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nxe5
Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit
Analyzen=731K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 54.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.2% and 54.4%), based on 731K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +9.6% · Breakpoint: Never

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~50%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.3% win rate (84,567 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.4% win rate (119,975 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.5% win rate (125,461 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.0% win rate (121,018 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.7% win rate (97,163 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.9% win rate (83,972 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.1% win rate (59,372 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.3% win rate (34,089 games)
  • 2500+: 50.7% win rate (5,580 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (55%), worst in Classical (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.2% win rate (1,125 games)
  • Bullet: 55.2% win rate (216,063 games)
  • Blitz: 52.4% win rate (343,470 games)
  • Rapid: 50.5% win rate (164,641 games)
  • Classical: 47.4% win rate (5,898 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (157 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (21,688 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (35,934 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (26,580 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (208 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (242 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (30,400 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (54,676 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (33,962 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (695 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (212 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.8% expected score (30,086 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (58,404 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (35,299 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (1,460 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (238 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (33,579 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (56,249 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (29,215 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (1,737 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (92 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (29,439 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (46,810 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (19,948 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (874 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (58 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (24,718 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (46,114 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (12,462 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (620 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.9% expected score (66 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (22,031 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (31,601 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (5,400 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (274 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 63.3% expected score (55 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (19,152 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (13,127 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (1,725 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (4,970 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (555 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.8% expected score (50 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Glek System
47.9%
Four Knights Game: Gunsberg Variation
49.7%
Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation
54.1%
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit
44.0%
Continuations (1)
Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation
54.1%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.6%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 731K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (97K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (55.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.2%) by 7.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit?

The Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 85K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.1%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 120K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 53.5% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 125K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.8%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 121K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.4%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 97K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 84K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 59K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 34K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 48.2% (90% CI: 45.7%-50.6%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 55.2% (90% CI: 55.0%-55.4%) win rate for white (216K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.2%-52.5%) win rate for white (343K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.7%) win rate for white (165K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.5%) win rate for white (5.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit is statistically favors white with a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.6%-52.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.