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Analyzer

Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted

3.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted leaves Black at 45.8% — pick a better weapon.

The minimum advantage of -8.6% means this line underperforms at the selected level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score45.8%Based on 3.7M gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
40%45.8%55%
Tight estimate: 45.8% (±0.1%, huge sample)
Min adv-8.6%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=3.7M
Outcome Distribution
4...exd4
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted
Analyzen=3.7M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 45.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.7% and 45.8%), based on 3.7M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.2% win rate (285,332 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.3% win rate (466,984 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.9% win rate (605,531 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.8% win rate (685,510 games)
  • 1600-1799: 42.8% win rate (654,425 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.6% win rate (499,968 games)
  • 2000-2199: 42.4% win rate (286,349 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.0% win rate (171,246 games)
  • 2500+: 38.5% win rate (38,326 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 44.4% win rate (2,468 games)
  • Bullet: 43.7% win rate (1,290,319 games)
  • Blitz: 43.0% win rate (1,727,605 games)
  • Rapid: 44.0% win rate (647,535 games)
  • Classical: 44.1% win rate (25,744 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (151 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (79,548 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (131,959 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (73,169 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (505 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 41.5% expected score (309 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (140,523 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (218,409 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (105,774 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.2% expected score (1,969 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.5% expected score (437 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (179,142 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (291,177 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (130,245 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (4,530 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.0% expected score (568 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (202,575 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (339,854 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (134,495 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (8,018 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (449 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (219,715 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (319,020 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (109,377 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.9% expected score (5,864 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (264 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (199,240 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (234,696 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (62,171 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (3,597 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (167 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (138,294 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (122,615 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (24,222 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (1,051 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (107 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (101,767 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (61,536 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (7,648 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (188 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (29,515 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (8,339 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (434 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (22 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation
50.7%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation
49.0%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation
52.8%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Double Spanish
49.6%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.7M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (654K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.7%) outperforms Classical (49.2%) by 3.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 285K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 467K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 606K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 686K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 52.8% (90% CI: 52.7%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 654K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 500K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 286K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 171K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 12.9% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 53.9% (90% CI: 52.3%-55.6%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.6%-52.8%) win rate for white (1.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-51.9%) win rate for white (1.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.8%) win rate for white (648K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.7%) win rate for white (26K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted is statistically favors white with a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.