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Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit

119K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.5%Range (90% confident): 54.2% – 54.7%Based on 119K games
0%54.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.2% – 54.7%
Outcome Distribution
51.9%5.1%43.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nd5
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit
Analyzen=119K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.1%

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 54.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.2% and 54.7%), based on 119K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.9% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~46%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.2% win rate (7,059 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.1% win rate (6,632 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.9% win rate (9,784 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.2% win rate (13,095 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.1% win rate (15,007 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.2% win rate (18,785 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.6% win rate (24,735 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.1% win rate (19,967 games)
  • 2500+: 47.6% win rate (4,018 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (56%), worst in Classical (47%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 56.3% win rate (218 games)
  • Bullet: 53.4% win rate (36,876 games)
  • Blitz: 52.1% win rate (63,498 games)
  • Rapid: 48.4% win rate (17,627 games)
  • Classical: 47.4% win rate (863 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,475 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (3,141 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (2,410 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (1,868 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (3,023 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (1,665 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (62 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,293 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (4,980 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (2,398 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (91 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 66.2% expected score (51 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (3,050 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (7,043 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (2,801 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (150 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (64 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (4,146 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (7,964 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (2,580 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (253 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (5,518 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (11,349 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (1,741 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (156 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (7,822 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (14,537 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (2,265 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (86 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (7,719 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (10,895 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (1,317 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (2,985 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (566 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (450 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.7% expected score (14 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Glek System
47.9%
Four Knights Game: Gunsberg Variation
49.7%
Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit
52.7%
Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation
54.1%
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Continuations (1)
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense
59.6%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 119K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 53.2% win rate for white (19K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.4%) outperforms Classical (47.4%) by 6.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a sharpness score of 94.9 (decisive), meaning 94.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.2%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 7.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 9.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.4%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 53.2% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 52.6% (90% CI: 52.0%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 47.6% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 16.3% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 56.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-61.7%) win rate for white (218 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.8%) win rate for white (37K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.4%) win rate for white (63K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.0%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit has a 47.4% (90% CI: 44.6%-50.2%) win rate for white (863 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.