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Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense

14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

38.8%

35%55%
Floor38.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 39.5%.

Measured over 14K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 14K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
14K
Best context
42.6% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Worst context
33.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
28 moves
Games that end decisively
96.8%
Draws
3.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.2 · Trap factor: +17.2 · 14K games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.8% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 51.8%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (47 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (163 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (104 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (111 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (315 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (213 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (221 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (632 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (451 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (343 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.0% expected score (962 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (535 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (620 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (947 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (390 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (59 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 34.7% expected score (974 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (1,873 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 35.9% expected score (279 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 36.6% expected score (1,074 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 37.0% expected score (1,775 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (264 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 36.9% expected score (923 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 33.5% expected score (625 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 29.4% expected score (88 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (247 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted
51.9%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation
50.7%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation
49.0%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation
52.8%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense scores 38.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 38.1% and 39.5% — from 14K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
14K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate?

Playing the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense, Black wins 37.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 59.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.8%. It rests on 14K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense performs best for Black at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 46.4% (642 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 39.3% in Blitz (7.3K games) against 41.4% in Rapid (2.3K games).

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.3%, draws 2.1% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 315 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 52.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 642 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 41.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 56.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.9%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 37.6%, draws 3.3% and loses 59.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.3%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 39.3%, draws 2.3% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.4%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 35.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 61.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.2%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 35.1%, draws 3.8% and loses 61.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.0%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 33.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 63.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 35.1%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 34.1%, draws 7.5% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 37.8%. It rests on 273 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 35.5%, draws 2.1% and loses 62.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.6%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 37.4%, draws 3.7% and loses 58.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.3%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 39.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.4%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 43.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 142 Lichess games.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 37.2% of its games and loses 59.6%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.