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Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense

14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense leaves Black at 38.8% — pick a better weapon.

The minimum advantage of -23.8% means this line underperforms at the selected level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score38.8%Based on 14K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
35%38.8%55%
Range (90% confident): 38.1% – 39.5%
Min adv-23.8%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=14K
Outcome Distribution
6...f5
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense
Analyzen=14K
Avg Length28 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 38.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 38.1% and 39.5%), based on 14K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.2 · Trap factor: +17.2 · n=14K

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.8% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 34%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.3% win rate (315 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.0% win rate (642 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.8% win rate (1,323 games)
  • 1400-1599: 37.6% win rate (1,860 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.3% win rate (2,016 games)
  • 1800-1999: 35.6% win rate (3,154 games)
  • 2000-2199: 35.1% win rate (3,124 games)
  • 2200-2499: 33.3% win rate (1,638 games)
  • 2500+: 34.1% win rate (273 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (44%), worst in Bullet (36%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 35.5% win rate (4,560 games)
  • Blitz: 37.4% win rate (7,313 games)
  • Rapid: 39.6% win rate (2,328 games)
  • Classical: 43.6% win rate (142 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (47 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (163 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (104 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (111 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (315 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (213 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (221 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (632 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (451 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (343 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 39.0% expected score (962 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (535 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (620 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (947 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (390 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.4% expected score (59 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 34.7% expected score (974 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (1,873 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 35.9% expected score (279 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 36.6% expected score (1,074 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 37.0% expected score (1,775 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 37.6% expected score (264 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 36.9% expected score (923 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 33.5% expected score (625 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 29.4% expected score (88 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (247 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted
51.9%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation
50.7%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation
49.0%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation
52.8%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 59.6% (90% CI: 59.0%-60.3%) win rate for white, based on 14K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 63.1% win rate for white (1.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (62.4%) outperforms Classical (52.6%) by 9.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 51.7% (90% CI: 47.0%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 315 Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 52.3% (90% CI: 49.1%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 642 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 56.0% (90% CI: 53.7%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 59.1% (90% CI: 57.2%-61.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 58.5% (90% CI: 56.7%-60.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 61.2% (90% CI: 59.8%-62.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 61.2% (90% CI: 59.8%-62.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 63.1% (90% CI: 61.1%-65.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 58.5% (90% CI: 53.6%-63.3%) win rate for white, based on 273 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 62.4% (90% CI: 61.2%-63.6%) win rate for white (4.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 58.9% (90% CI: 58.0%-59.9%) win rate for white (7.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 56.9% (90% CI: 55.3%-58.6%) win rate for white (2.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense has a 52.6% (90% CI: 45.8%-59.4%) win rate for white (142 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Belgrade Gambit, Modern Defense is statistically favors white with a 59.6% (90% CI: 59.0%-60.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.