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Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit

443K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score45.9%Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 46.0%Based on 443K games
0%45.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.8% – 46.0%
Outcome Distribution
44.0%3.8%52.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Bxf7+
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit
Analyzen=443K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 45.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.8% and 46.0%), based on 443K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +3.9% · Breakpoint: 1400-1599

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.7 · Trap factor: +17.8 · n=443K

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 45%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.1% win rate (1,419 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.8% win rate (7,157 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.0% win rate (24,868 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.4% win rate (59,815 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.6% win rate (108,621 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.2% win rate (134,035 games)
  • 2000-2199: 40.5% win rate (78,842 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.8% win rate (25,356 games)
  • 2500+: 44.5% win rate (3,137 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.3% win rate (95 games)
  • Bullet: 44.9% win rate (114,484 games)
  • Blitz: 43.5% win rate (241,102 games)
  • Rapid: 44.3% win rate (83,757 games)
  • Classical: 42.1% win rate (3,812 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (802 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (374 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (239 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (3,213 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (2,753 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (1,159 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 67.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (8,195 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (12,076 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (4,438 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (140 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (13,821 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (32,832 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (12,590 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (549 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (21,908 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (61,206 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (24,003 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.1% expected score (1,491 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (26,173 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (78,340 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (28,115 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (1,400 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (22,269 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (44,594 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (11,775 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (196 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (15,125 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (8,778 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.7% expected score (1,430 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 44.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (2,978 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (149 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Glek System
47.9%
Four Knights Game: Gunsberg Variation
49.7%
Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit
52.7%
Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation
54.1%
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.9%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 443K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (7.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (44.9%) outperforms Classical (42.1%) by 2.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit?

The Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 60K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.4%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 109K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 42.2% (90% CI: 42.0%-42.4%) win rate for white, based on 134K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 40.5% (90% CI: 40.3%-40.8%) win rate for white, based on 79K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 41.8% (90% CI: 41.2%-42.3%) win rate for white, based on 25K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.0%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.6%-45.1%) win rate for white (114K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 43.5% (90% CI: 43.4%-43.7%) win rate for white (241K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 44.3% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.5%) win rate for white (84K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit has a 42.1% (90% CI: 40.8%-43.4%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Italian Variation, Noa Gambit is slightly favors black with a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.9%-44.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.