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Analyzer

Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit

38K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit leaves Black at 41.3% — pick a better weapon.

The minimum advantage of -18.3% means this line underperforms at the selected level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score41.3%Based on 38K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
35%41.3%55%
Range (90% confident): 40.9% – 41.7%
Min adv-18.3%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=38K
Outcome Distribution
5...Nd4
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit
Analyzen=38K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 41.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 40.9% and 41.7%), based on 38K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -15.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 41% → 33%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 41.4% win rate (4,000 games)
  • 1000-1199: 40.1% win rate (6,767 games)
  • 1200-1399: 40.9% win rate (8,308 games)
  • 1400-1599: 39.1% win rate (7,908 games)
  • 1600-1799: 37.7% win rate (5,596 games)
  • 1800-1999: 36.7% win rate (3,197 games)
  • 2000-2199: 37.5% win rate (1,459 games)
  • 2200-2499: 34.9% win rate (559 games)
  • 2500+: 32.5% win rate (40 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (51%), worst in Classical (32%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.2% win rate (60 games)
  • Bullet: 41.6% win rate (14,400 games)
  • Blitz: 38.5% win rate (16,501 games)
  • Rapid: 36.9% win rate (6,683 games)
  • Classical: 32.1% win rate (190 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (1,101 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (2,138 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (758 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (2,020 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (3,226 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.3% expected score (1,501 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (2,595 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (3,904 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (1,752 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 32.1% expected score (46 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (2,718 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.7% expected score (3,609 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 37.1% expected score (1,488 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 33.5% expected score (77 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (2,526 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 38.4% expected score (2,209 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 36.9% expected score (801 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (42 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (1,767 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 34.5% expected score (1,107 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (308 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 31.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 41.7% expected score (1,114 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 31.3% expected score (276 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (68 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 37.7% expected score (520 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 23.9% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 37.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted
51.9%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation
50.7%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation
49.0%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation
52.8%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 56.9% (90% CI: 56.4%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 38K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 59.5% win rate for white (3.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (59.1%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.0%) by 11.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 55.5% (90% CI: 54.2%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 56.3% (90% CI: 55.3%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 55.6% (90% CI: 54.7%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 56.9% (90% CI: 56.0%-57.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 57.9% (90% CI: 56.8%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 59.5% (90% CI: 58.1%-60.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 58.3% (90% CI: 56.2%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 61.5% (90% CI: 58.1%-64.8%) win rate for white, based on 559 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 55.5% (90% CI: 54.8%-56.2%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.7%) win rate for white (17K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 59.1% (90% CI: 58.1%-60.1%) win rate for white (6.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit has a 60.8% (90% CI: 55.0%-66.6%) win rate for white (190 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Oxford Gambit is statistically favors white with a 56.9% (90% CI: 56.4%-57.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.