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Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense

59K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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5...Nxe4
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.4%

45%55%
Floor50.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.8%.

Measured over 59K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 6.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 59K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
59K
Best context
55.7% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
34.3% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
93.1%
Draws
6.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 37.7% at 0-999, 49.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (954 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.1% expected score (1,815 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.6% expected score (1,359 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (1,046 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (1,422 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (1,062 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (1,061 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (1,310 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (905 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 28.2% expected score (42 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 28.8% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,557 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (1,766 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (677 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (46 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (2,676 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (3,246 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (686 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (3,455 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (5,438 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (1,064 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.5% expected score (55 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (4,083 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (5,496 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (1,098 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (6,250 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (5,713 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (537 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (2,942 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (1,105 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.5% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted
51.9%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation
50.7%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation
49.0%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation
52.8%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 50.4% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.1% and 50.8% — from 59K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
59K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 50.4% (range, 90% confident: 50.1% – 50.8%) for Black, based on 59K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense performs best at 1800-1999, where it scores 54.7% for Black (10K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, Bullet (52.3%) outperforms UltraBullet (40.1%). Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 39.1% (range, 90% confident: 37.9% – 40.4%) for Black, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 38.6% (range, 90% confident: 37.3% – 39.9%) for Black, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 42.1% (range, 90% confident: 40.7% – 43.5%) for Black, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 48.3% (range, 90% confident: 47.0% – 49.6%) for Black, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 53.6% (range, 90% confident: 52.6% – 54.6%) for Black, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 54.7% (range, 90% confident: 53.9% – 55.6%) for Black, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 54.6% (range, 90% confident: 53.8% – 55.4%) for Black, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 52.4% (range, 90% confident: 51.7% – 53.2%) for Black, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.9% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 48.5% (range, 90% confident: 47.2% – 49.7%) for Black, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 11.0% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 52.3% (range, 90% confident: 51.8% – 52.8%) for Black (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 50.4% (range, 90% confident: 49.9% – 50.9%) for Black (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 45.0% (range, 90% confident: 44.0% – 45.9%) for Black (7.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense scores 45.9% (range, 90% confident: 41.1% – 50.7%) for Black (290 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense is about level with a 46.1% (range, 90% confident: 45.8% – 46.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.