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Analyzer

Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense

59K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense is balanced for Black at 50.4% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score50.4%Based on 59K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%50.4%55%
Range (90% confident): 50.1% – 50.8%
Min adv+0.1%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=59K
Outcome Distribution
5...Nxe4
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense
Analyzen=59K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.9%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 50.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.1% and 50.8%), based on 59K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 37% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 36.9% win rate (4,143 games)
  • 1000-1199: 36.6% win rate (3,568 games)
  • 1200-1399: 40.1% win rate (3,329 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.9% win rate (4,061 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.2% win rate (6,662 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.3% win rate (10,020 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.3% win rate (10,735 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.0% win rate (12,525 games)
  • 2500+: 42.9% win rate (4,076 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in UltraBullet (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 36.6% win rate (79 games)
  • Bullet: 49.3% win rate (24,024 games)
  • Blitz: 46.4% win rate (27,311 games)
  • Rapid: 41.5% win rate (7,415 games)
  • Classical: 42.0% win rate (290 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.7% expected score (954 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.1% expected score (1,815 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 36.6% expected score (1,359 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (1,046 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 37.5% expected score (1,422 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (1,062 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (1,061 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (1,310 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.2% expected score (905 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 28.2% expected score (42 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 28.8% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,557 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (1,766 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (677 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (46 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (2,676 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (3,246 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (686 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (3,455 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (5,438 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (1,064 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.5% expected score (55 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (4,083 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (5,496 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (1,098 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 62.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (6,250 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (5,713 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (537 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 31.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (2,942 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (1,105 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.5% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted
51.9%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation
50.7%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation
49.0%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation
52.8%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 59K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 59.5% win rate for white (3.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.5%) outperforms Bullet (44.8%) by 6.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a sharpness score of 93.1 (decisive), meaning 93.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 58.7% (90% CI: 57.4%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 59.5% (90% CI: 58.1%-60.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 56.0% (90% CI: 54.6%-57.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.0%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 42.0% (90% CI: 41.1%-42.8%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 41.2% (90% CI: 40.4%-42.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 8.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 43.2% (90% CI: 42.4%-43.9%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 8.9% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.8%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 11.0% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.3%-45.3%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.2%-46.2%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.5%) win rate for white (7.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 45.4%-55.1%) win rate for white (290 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation, Schmid Defense is statistically balanced with a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.