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Analyzer

Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation

870 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation leaves Black at 44.9% — pick a better weapon.

The minimum advantage of -15.9% means this line underperforms at the selected level.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score44.9%Based on 870 gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
35%44.9%55%
Range (90% confident): 42.1% – 47.6%
Min adv-15.9%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=870
Outcome Distribution
11...Rb8
Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation
Analyzen=870
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness98%
Draw Rate2.1%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation has a 44.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 42.1% and 47.6%), based on 870 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.2% · Bullet best · Rapid worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 53% → 20%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.7% win rate (26 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.1% win rate (91 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.9% win rate (200 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.4% win rate (207 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.2% win rate (186 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.8% win rate (117 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.6% win rate (31 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 2500+: 20.0% win rate (1 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (50%), worst in Bullet (39%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 38.8% win rate (152 games)
  • Blitz: 41.9% win rate (472 games)
  • Rapid: 50.3% win rate (238 games)
  • Classical: 47.4% win rate (8 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 66.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 36.1% expected score (20 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 28.7% expected score (29 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (115 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (56 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (125 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (45 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 36.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 39.0% expected score (89 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (61 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (61 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted
51.9%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation
50.7%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation
49.0%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation
52.8%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 51.3%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 870 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 60.0% win rate for white (186 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (59.6%) outperforms Rapid (47.4%) by 12.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation?

The Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation has a sharpness score of 97.9 (very decisive), meaning 97.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 49.1%-60.6%) win rate for white, based on 200 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation has a 55.4% (90% CI: 49.7%-61.0%) win rate for white, based on 207 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.2% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation has a 60.0% (90% CI: 54.1%-65.8%) win rate for white, based on 186 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 0.8% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 39.4%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 117 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation has a 59.6% (90% CI: 53.0%-66.0%) win rate for white (152 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.6%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 51.9%-59.4%) win rate for white (472 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 42.1%-52.7%) win rate for white (238 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Halloween Gambit, Plasma Variation is statistically favors white with a 54.1% (90% CI: 51.3%-56.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.