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Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation

18K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score45.6%Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 46.2%Based on 18K games
0%45.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 46.2%
Outcome Distribution
43.8%3.5%52.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
2.g4
Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation
Analyzen=18K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 45.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.0% and 46.2%), based on 18K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.3% · Blitz best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 41% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.7% win rate (3,029 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.6% win rate (3,184 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.0% win rate (3,233 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.5% win rate (3,425 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.4% win rate (2,258 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.1% win rate (2,100 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.1% win rate (780 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.8% win rate (228 games)
  • 2500+: 49.3% win rate (34 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (45%), worst in Classical (30%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 41.7% win rate (62 games)
  • Bullet: 42.9% win rate (4,255 games)
  • Blitz: 45.4% win rate (9,350 games)
  • Rapid: 41.7% win rate (4,431 games)
  • Classical: 30.1% win rate (173 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (532 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (1,650 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (827 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 22.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (516 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (1,657 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (972 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (637 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (1,612 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (935 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (40 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (1,118 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,421 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (812 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 19.8% expected score (58 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (604 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (1,184 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (441 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (24 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (456 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (1,285 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (340 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (258 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (426 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (93 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 37.9% expected score (102 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (114 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Continuations (1)
Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation, Scorpion-Grob Gambit
51.7%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.4%) win rate for white, based on 18K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 46.1% win rate for white (2.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (45.4%) outperforms Classical (30.1%) by 15.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 40.7% (90% CI: 39.2%-42.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 43.2%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 45.0% (90% CI: 43.6%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 41.5% (90% CI: 40.2%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 43.7%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 42.2%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 780 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 38.4%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 228 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 41.6%-44.1%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.3%) win rate for white (9.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 41.7% (90% CI: 40.5%-42.9%) win rate for white (4.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation has a 30.1% (90% CI: 24.5%-35.9%) win rate for white (173 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Spike Variation is slightly favors black with a 43.8% (90% CI: 43.2%-44.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.