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Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation

28M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.8%Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 47.8%Based on 28M games
0%47.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 47.8%
Outcome Distribution
45.8%4.0%50.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Qxd5
Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation
Analyzen=28M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 47.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 47.8%), based on 28M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...Qe6+ · Black wins: 46.2% · n=12M

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.1% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 44% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.1% win rate (1,860,946 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.2% win rate (3,178,978 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.0% win rate (4,263,627 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.4% win rate (5,286,111 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.0% win rate (5,731,901 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (4,768,431 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.5% win rate (2,341,039 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.7% win rate (860,342 games)
  • 2500+: 41.6% win rate (110,968 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (48%), worst in Classical (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 48.3% win rate (60,572 games)
  • Bullet: 48.3% win rate (11,699,926 games)
  • Blitz: 44.8% win rate (13,248,458 games)
  • Rapid: 41.3% win rate (3,289,814 games)
  • Classical: 38.0% win rate (103,573 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 63.2% expected score (2,605 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (501,342 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (962,745 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (391,222 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (3,032 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.0% expected score (4,733 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (934,317 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (1,639,512 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.0% expected score (589,302 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (11,114 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (9,320 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (1,400,656 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (2,151,370 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (678,802 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (23,479 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (12,567 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (1,937,665 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (2,653,442 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (649,293 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (33,144 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (13,919 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (2,341,547 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (2,811,831 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (543,173 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (21,431 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (10,909 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (2,264,737 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (2,145,491 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (337,648 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (9,646 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (5,020 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (1,518,524 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (727,369 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (88,579 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (1,547 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.3% expected score (1,435 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (700,999 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (146,089 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (11,641 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (178 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 37.1% expected score (64 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (100,139 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (10,609 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.0% expected score (154 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Scandinavian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Scandinavian Defense: Valencian Variation
49.0%
Scandinavian Defense: Modern Variation
47.8%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line
47.3%
Scandinavian Defense: Gubinsky-Melts Defense
48.5%
Scandinavian Defense: Main Line, Mieses Variation
46.6%
Analyze Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate?

The Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 28M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation perform best?

The Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (3.2M games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (56.8%) outperforms Bullet (48.7%) by 8.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation?

The Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.9M Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.2M Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 4.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 5.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 5.7M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.8M Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 860K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 111K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.2%) win rate for white (61K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.7%) win rate for white (12M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.6%-50.6%) win rate for white (13M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.7%-53.8%) win rate for white (3.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.0%) win rate for white (104K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation a good opening?

The Scandinavian Defense: Mieses-Kotroc Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.