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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit

8.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.6%Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 50.7%Based on 8.3M games
0%50.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 50.7%
Outcome Distribution
48.9%3.4%47.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.c3
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit
Analyzen=8.3M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 50.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.6% and 50.7%), based on 8.3M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +12.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.9% win rate (345,588 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.8% win rate (758,408 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.9% win rate (1,179,117 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.0% win rate (1,504,449 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.0% win rate (1,648,959 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.8% win rate (1,450,835 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.4% win rate (905,757 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.6% win rate (471,750 games)
  • 2500+: 53.3% win rate (76,962 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.8% win rate (28,442 games)
  • Bullet: 50.1% win rate (3,431,685 games)
  • Blitz: 48.7% win rate (3,685,341 games)
  • Rapid: 46.5% win rate (1,151,735 games)
  • Classical: 43.3% win rate (44,622 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (743 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (97,285 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (184,699 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (62,454 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (407 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (1,726 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (207,247 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (393,086 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (154,088 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.4% expected score (2,261 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (3,072 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (336,329 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (580,528 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (251,100 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (8,088 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.8% expected score (7,499 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (498,493 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (705,791 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (276,945 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (15,721 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.4% expected score (9,976 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (635,227 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (768,414 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (223,184 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (12,158 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (3,171 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (668,967 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (642,313 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (131,497 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.6% expected score (4,887 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.5% expected score (1,388 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (551,252 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (308,561 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (43,647 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (909 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.6% expected score (765 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (369,574 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (93,094 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (8,137 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (180 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (102 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (67,311 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (8,855 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (683 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Continuations (2)
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense
42.8%
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation
51.4%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 8.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (77K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.1%) outperforms Classical (43.3%) by 6.8%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 346K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.7%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 758K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.2M Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.6M Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 906K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 472K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 77K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.2%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.2%) win rate for white (3.4M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.7%) win rate for white (3.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.6%) win rate for white (1.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit has a 43.3% (90% CI: 42.9%-43.7%) win rate for white (45K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit is statistically balanced with a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.