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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation

71K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

No move sequence recorded for this opening

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.8%

45%60%
Floor52.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 53.2%.

Measured over 71K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 2.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 71K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
71K
Best context
54.9% at 1400-1599 Rapid
Worst context
50.8% at 1600-1799 Rapid
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
97.3%
Draws
2.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +5.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.4% at 0-999, 57.9% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (106 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (515 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (483 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (88 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (1,507 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (1,937 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (389 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (3,225 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (5,302 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (917 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (5,126 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (9,668 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,760 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (7,437 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (9,712 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (1,307 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (45 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (7,091 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (4,861 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (630 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (41 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (4,729 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,096 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (1,627 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (156 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Bowdler Attack
47.2%
Sicilian Defense: Old Sicilian
48.5%
Sicilian Defense: Closed
49.8%
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation
50.2%
Sicilian Defense: McDonnell Attack
48.6%

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation scores 52.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.5% and 53.2% — from 71K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
71K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate?

Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation, White wins 51.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 71K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 53.3% (19K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.5% in Blitz (34K games) against 53.0% in Rapid (5.2K games).

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 47.0%, draws 0.3% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 191 Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 50.6%, draws 1.8% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.9%, draws 1.5% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 52.1%, draws 2.1% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 6.9K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 34K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 50.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 119 Lichess games.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.4% of its games and loses 45.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.