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Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation

71K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.8%Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 53.2%Based on 71K games
0%52.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.5% – 53.2%
Outcome Distribution
51.4%2.7%45.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation
n=71K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.7%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 52.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.5% and 53.2%), based on 71K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +5.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 47% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.0% win rate (191 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.6% win rate (1,086 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.9% win rate (3,837 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.1% win rate (9,480 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.1% win rate (16,607 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.9% win rate (18,514 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.7% win rate (12,599 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.5% win rate (6,933 games)
  • 2500+: 52.7% win rate (1,785 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.8% win rate (94 games)
  • Bullet: 52.0% win rate (31,363 games)
  • Blitz: 50.9% win rate (34,280 games)
  • Rapid: 51.4% win rate (5,176 games)
  • Classical: 50.2% win rate (119 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (106 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (515 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (483 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (88 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (1,507 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (1,937 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (389 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (3,225 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (5,302 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (917 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 59.3% expected score (20 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (5,126 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (9,668 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,760 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (7,437 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (9,712 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (1,307 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (45 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (7,091 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (4,861 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (630 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (41 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (4,729 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,096 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (67 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (1,627 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (156 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 71K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 52.9% win rate for white (3.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (50.8%) by 1.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 41.1%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 191 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 0.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.1%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.3%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 9.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 50.8%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.5%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.4%) win rate for white (34K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.5%) win rate for white (5.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 42.7%-57.7%) win rate for white (119 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Danish Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.