Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense
3.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
45.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.5%.
Measured over 3.1K games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.1K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.1K
- Best context
- 50.2% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.2% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 70.0% at 1200-1399, 53.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (58 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (76 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 37.4% expected score (121 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 42.7% expected score (360 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (246 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (916 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.5% expected score (51 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (390 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (574 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (37 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.0% expected score (152 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 68.0% expected score (18 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense scores 45.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 43.6% and 46.5% — from 3.1K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.1K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense win rate?
Playing the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense, White wins 42.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 3.1K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense perform best?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 49.1% (1.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.9% in Blitz (2.0K games) against 40.3% in Rapid (111 games).
How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 43.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 54.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 137 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 38.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.0%. It rests on 503 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 42.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 46.3%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 39.4%, draws 3.8% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.3%. It rests on 170 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 42.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.0%. It rests on 972 Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 43.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.
What is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 37.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 57.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.3%. It rests on 111 Lichess games.
Is the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense a good opening?
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 42.8% of its games and loses 52.8%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.