3.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense has a 45.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 43.6% and 46.5%), based on 3.1K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 60% → 39%
Best in Blitz (43%), worst in Classical (14%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense has a 42.8% (90% CI: 41.3%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K rated games from Lichess.
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 46.3% win rate for white (1.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (43.2%) outperforms Rapid (37.8%) by 5.4%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense has a 43.0% (90% CI: 36.1%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 137 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense has a 38.9% (90% CI: 35.4%-42.5%) win rate for white, based on 503 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense has a 42.0% (90% CI: 39.6%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense has a 46.3% (90% CI: 43.7%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense has a 39.4% (90% CI: 33.3%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 170 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense has a 42.6% (90% CI: 40.0%-45.2%) win rate for white (972 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.
In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense has a 43.2% (90% CI: 41.4%-45.1%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense has a 37.8% (90% CI: 30.4%-45.4%) win rate for white (111 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.
The Sicilian Defense: Smith-Morra Gambit, Chicago Defense is slightly favors black with a 42.8% (90% CI: 41.3%-44.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.