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Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation

313K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score47.3%Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.5%Based on 313K games
0%47.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.2% – 47.5%
Outcome Distribution
45.4%3.8%50.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bb4
Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation
Analyzen=313K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 47.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.2% and 47.5%), based on 313K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~50%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.5% win rate (682 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.2% win rate (2,826 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.6% win rate (10,242 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.2% win rate (28,903 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.4% win rate (65,416 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.7% win rate (94,038 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.6% win rate (75,845 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.5% win rate (31,642 games)
  • 2500+: 50.1% win rate (3,624 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (47%), worst in UltraBullet (38%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 37.7% win rate (37 games)
  • Bullet: 44.5% win rate (131,744 games)
  • Blitz: 46.0% win rate (152,030 games)
  • Rapid: 46.9% win rate (28,265 games)
  • Classical: 47.3% win rate (1,142 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (374 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (237 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (71 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,417 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (1,127 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (277 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (4,257 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (4,901 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,045 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.0% expected score (27 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (12,090 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (13,610 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (3,046 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (141 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.5% expected score (25,137 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (33,274 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (6,647 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (354 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (31,339 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (52,616 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (9,635 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (446 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (32,207 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (37,092 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (6,392 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (153 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (21,613 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (8,869 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (1,142 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (3,310 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (304 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Continuations (2)
Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Jaffe Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation, Koch Variation
49.1%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 313K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 50.1% win rate for white (3.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (46.9%) outperforms Bullet (44.5%) by 2.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 46.4%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 682 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.7%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 45.8%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.4%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 94K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 76K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.2%-44.7%) win rate for white (132K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.2%) win rate for white (152K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.4%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 44.8%-49.7%) win rate for white (1.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Pin Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.4% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.