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Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System

587K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.0%Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.1%Based on 587K games
0%48.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.1%
Outcome Distribution
45.8%4.3%49.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.d4
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System
Analyzen=587K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 48.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 48.1%), based on 587K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~48%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.4% win rate (4,564 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.5% win rate (16,122 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.2% win rate (35,337 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.4% win rate (69,167 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.4% win rate (112,516 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.6% win rate (141,096 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.2% win rate (132,169 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.2% win rate (67,590 games)
  • 2500+: 47.2% win rate (8,913 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (47%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.6% win rate (131 games)
  • Bullet: 45.1% win rate (170,484 games)
  • Blitz: 46.0% win rate (320,168 games)
  • Rapid: 46.8% win rate (92,405 games)
  • Classical: 47.2% win rate (4,286 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (2,080 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (1,933 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (542 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (6,613 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (7,614 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,857 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (10,166 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (19,530 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (5,489 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (132 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (17,959 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (36,886 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (13,585 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (706 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 42.7% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (25,496 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (64,086 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (21,279 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (1,636 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.3% expected score (30 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (31,228 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (81,987 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (26,589 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.8% expected score (1,262 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (36,826 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (77,803 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (17,070 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (453 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (32,357 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (29,318 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (5,851 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.8% expected score (64 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (7,759 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (1,011 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (143 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Continuations (4)
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Cortlever Gambit
49.2%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Smith-Morra Line
51.6%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Taimanov Line
47.1%
Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System, Zagorovsky Line
47.3%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 587K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 49.5% win rate for white (16K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (46.8%) outperforms UltraBullet (42.6%) by 4.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 35K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 69K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 46.4% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 113K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.4%-44.8%) win rate for white, based on 141K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 44.2% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.4%) win rate for white, based on 132K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 68K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.3%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 42.6% (90% CI: 35.7%-49.7%) win rate for white (131 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.3%) win rate for white (170K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 46.0% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.1%) win rate for white (320K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.1%) win rate for white (92K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.9%-48.4%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: O'Kelly Variation, Normal System is slightly favors black with a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.