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Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation

857K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.6%Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 51.7%Based on 857K games
0%51.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 51.7%
Outcome Distribution
49.0%5.2%45.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Bb5+
Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation
Analyzen=857K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.2%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 51.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.5% and 51.7%), based on 857K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.4% win rate (8,994 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.2% win rate (23,943 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.8% win rate (55,210 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.2% win rate (98,680 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.5% win rate (134,699 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.8% win rate (169,211 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.1% win rate (163,469 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.2% win rate (157,182 games)
  • 2500+: 51.8% win rate (45,533 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.1% win rate (379 games)
  • Bullet: 50.0% win rate (230,332 games)
  • Blitz: 48.7% win rate (506,313 games)
  • Rapid: 48.4% win rate (113,802 games)
  • Classical: 45.8% win rate (6,095 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.9% expected score (28 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (3,378 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (3,365 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (2,180 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (57 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (9,284 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (10,971 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (3,517 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (114 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (83 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (17,269 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (29,534 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (8,039 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (285 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.7% expected score (117 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (26,281 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (54,397 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (16,837 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (1,048 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (33,484 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (75,966 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (23,581 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (1,641 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (46 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (34,892 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (104,975 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (27,365 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (1,933 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (33,708 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (107,936 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (21,017 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (798 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (46,516 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (99,957 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (10,486 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.4% expected score (216 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (25,520 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (19,212 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (780 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (17 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Continuations (4)
Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Haag Gambit
55.0%
Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Main Line
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Moscow Gambit
53.8%
Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation, Sokolsky Variation
48.2%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 857K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.8% win rate for white (46K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.0%) outperforms Classical (45.8%) by 4.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 45.4% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 55K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 99K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 135K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 169K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 163K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 157K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 45.9%-54.3%) win rate for white (379 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.2%) win rate for white (230K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-48.9%) win rate for white (506K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.6%) win rate for white (114K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 44.8%-46.9%) win rate for white (6.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Moscow Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.