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Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack

59K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.4%Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.7%Based on 59K games
0%53.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.0% – 53.7%
Outcome Distribution
50.2%6.3%43.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Bb3
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack
Analyzen=59K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.3%

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a 53.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.0% and 53.7%), based on 59K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.5% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.2% win rate (99 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.0% win rate (498 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.0% win rate (1,786 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.0% win rate (4,877 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.1% win rate (10,199 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.7% win rate (14,879 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.0% win rate (19,778 games)
  • 2500+: 52.7% win rate (6,659 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (52%), worst in UltraBullet (11%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 11.1% win rate (3 games)
  • Bullet: 52.3% win rate (13,084 games)
  • Blitz: 49.8% win rate (37,776 games)
  • Rapid: 48.7% win rate (7,487 games)
  • Classical: 43.8% win rate (436 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (51 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.2% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (182 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (277 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (438 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (1,102 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (231 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (809 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (3,134 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (855 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (79 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (1,516 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (6,678 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (1,842 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (163 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (2,461 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (9,753 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (2,530 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (135 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (4,199 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (13,670 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (1,868 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (38 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (3,422 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (3,119 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.4% expected score (114 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Sicilian Defense
48.5%
Variations (5)
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon
45.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Exchange Variation
45.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind
48.8%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Breyer Variation
43.7%
Sicilian Defense: Accelerated Dragon, Maróczy Bind, Gurgenidze Variation
44.6%
Continuations (1)
Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack, Ivanchuk Line
43.4%
Analyze Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 59K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack perform best?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.7% win rate for white (6.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.3%) outperforms Classical (43.8%) by 8.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a 52.0% (90% CI: 48.3%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 498 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a 49.0% (90% CI: 47.1%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 10.6% draw rate.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.1%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.2%) win rate for white (38K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.7%) win rate for white (7.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

What is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack has a 43.8% (90% CI: 39.9%-47.7%) win rate for white (436 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.9%.

Is the Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack a good opening?

The Sicilian Defense: Alapin Variation, Stoltz Attack is statistically favors white with a 50.2% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.