Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation

2.0M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

View As

Playable

White Expected Score51.8%Range (90% confident): 51.7% – 51.8%Based on 2.0M games

0%51.8%100%

Range (90% confident): 51.7% – 51.8%

Outcome Distribution

49.9%3.7%46.4%

Win

Draw

Loss

3...Nd4

Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation

Analyzen=2.0M

Avg Length33 moves

Sharpness96%

Draw Rate3.7%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 51.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.7% and 51.8%), based on 2.0M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.2% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 53%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in UltraBullet (44%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.3% expected score (30 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (21,317 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (52,479 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (21,866 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (164 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (73 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (43,319 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (154,972 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (64,652 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (975 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.7% expected score (76 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (56,895 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (242,890 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (127,888 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (4,094 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.8% expected score (88 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (61,046 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (246,220 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (153,337 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (8,428 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (51 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (50,746 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (199,194 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (120,611 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (6,724 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (26 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (41,205 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (139,835 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (65,177 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.0% expected score (2,243 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (30 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (29,787 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (60,954 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (17,654 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.3% expected score (418 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (19,961 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (17,407 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (2,279 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (29 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (3,058 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.0% expected score (721 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.5% expected score (71 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 68.6% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Ruy Lopez

51.9%

Variations (5)

Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense

55.9%

Ruy Lopez: Alapin Defense, Alapin Gambit

53.0%

Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense

49.9%

Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Anderssen Variation

48.6%

Ruy Lopez: Berlin Defense, Berlin Wall

12.2%

Continuations (1)

Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation, Paulsen Variation

51.9%

Analyze Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate?

The Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.0M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation perform best?

The Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.6% win rate for white (3.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (52.7%) outperforms UltraBullet (43.5%) by 9.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation?

The Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 96K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 264K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 432K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 469K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 377K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 248K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 109K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.3%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 43.5% (90% CI: 39.5%-47.6%) win rate for white (397 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.0%) win rate for white (327K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.9%) win rate for white (1.1M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.6%) win rate for white (574K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.1%-53.2%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

Is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation a good opening?

The Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the Ruy Lopez: Bird Variation expected score for White?