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Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation

36K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score48.2%Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 48.6%Based on 36K games
0%48.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 48.6%
Outcome Distribution
44.1%8.2%47.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Nxd5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation
Analyzen=36K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate8.2%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a 48.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 48.6%), based on 36K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -2.0% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.3% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 14% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.8% win rate (63 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.1% win rate (286 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.4% win rate (1,304 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.7% win rate (3,771 games)
  • 1800-1999: 44.0% win rate (8,229 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.4% win rate (11,810 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.6% win rate (9,310 games)
  • 2500+: 43.1% win rate (1,226 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (45%), worst in Classical (34%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.1% win rate (8,360 games)
  • Blitz: 44.0% win rate (23,436 games)
  • Rapid: 42.5% win rate (3,977 games)
  • Classical: 33.8% win rate (228 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (38 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (129 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (137 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (476 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (705 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (118 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,093 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (2,276 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (370 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 35.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,841 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (5,328 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (984 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.4% expected score (76 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (2,114 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (8,075 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (1,543 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 37.4% expected score (78 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (2,079 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (6,296 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (902 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (589 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (598 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a 44.1% (90% CI: 43.6%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 36K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 44.6% win rate for white (9.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (45.1%) outperforms Classical (33.8%) by 11.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 91.8 (decisive), meaning 91.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 41.3%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 286 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 42.1%-46.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a 44.7% (90% CI: 43.3%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.1%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a 43.4% (90% CI: 42.7%-44.2%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 43.7%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 10.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a 43.1% (90% CI: 40.8%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 46 moves with a 12.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.2%-46.0%) win rate for white (8.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.5%-44.6%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a 42.5% (90% CI: 41.2%-43.8%) win rate for white (4.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.0%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation has a 33.8% (90% CI: 28.7%-39.0%) win rate for white (228 Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.3%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Tartakower Defense, Makogonov Exchange Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.1% (90% CI: 43.6%-44.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.