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Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation

53K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.5%Range (90% confident): 51.1% – 51.8%Based on 53K games
0%51.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.1% – 51.8%
Outcome Distribution
46.7%9.5%43.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.e4
Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation
Analyzen=53K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness91%
Draw Rate9.5%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 51.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.1% and 51.8%), based on 53K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +5.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.6 · Trap factor: +2.9 · n=53K

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.2% · Rapid best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.5% win rate (84 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.5% win rate (409 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.2% win rate (1,427 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.6% win rate (3,611 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.9% win rate (6,901 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.4% win rate (9,364 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.8% win rate (9,766 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.5% win rate (15,370 games)
  • 2500+: 40.5% win rate (6,492 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (49%), worst in UltraBullet (39%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 38.5% win rate (5 games)
  • Bullet: 46.4% win rate (16,231 games)
  • Blitz: 46.5% win rate (31,049 games)
  • Rapid: 48.9% win rate (5,739 games)
  • Classical: 40.7% win rate (400 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 36.9% expected score (44 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 64.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (158 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (222 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (567 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (725 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (131 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,149 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (1,992 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 60.4% expected score (443 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.3% expected score (24 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (1,978 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (3,839 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,017 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (67 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (2,644 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (5,073 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (1,554 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.4% expected score (93 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2,489 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (5,938 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,286 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (4,035 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (10,317 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (983 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (3,167 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (2,910 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (290 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 57.1% expected score (125 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 53K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (3.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (48.9%) outperforms Classical (40.7%) by 8.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 90.5 (decisive), meaning 90.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 48.4%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 409 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.9%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 9.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.9%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 10.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 40.5% (90% CI: 39.5%-41.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 48 moves with a 24.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.7%-47.0%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.0%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.9%) win rate for white (5.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.7%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation has a 40.7% (90% CI: 36.7%-44.8%) win rate for white (400 Lichess games). Draw rate is 31.8%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Semi-Tarrasch Defense, Exchange Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.