TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation

120K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
White Expected Score54.0%Range (90% confident): 53.7% – 54.2%Based on 120K games
0%54.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.7% – 54.2%
Outcome Distribution
49.6%8.8%41.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Qa4+
Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation
Analyzen=120K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness91%
Draw Rate8.8%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 54.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.7% and 54.2%), based on 120K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +11.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.0% · Blitz best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 51% → 31%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.9% win rate (1,427 games)
  • 1000-1199: 49.8% win rate (5,612 games)
  • 1200-1399: 49.6% win rate (11,996 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.7% win rate (15,306 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.7% win rate (14,766 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.5% win rate (18,053 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.9% win rate (19,840 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.9% win rate (19,968 games)
  • 2500+: 30.8% win rate (12,901 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (50%), worst in UltraBullet (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 35.1% win rate (37 games)
  • Bullet: 49.6% win rate (30,580 games)
  • Blitz: 50.3% win rate (68,826 games)
  • Rapid: 47.4% win rate (19,261 games)
  • Classical: 41.3% win rate (1,165 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (430 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (824 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (173 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (1,527 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (3,111 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (970 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (2,477 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (6,740 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (2,689 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.2% expected score (88 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (3,018 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (8,277 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (3,798 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (207 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 25.9% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (4,002 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (7,526 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (3,008 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (217 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (4,545 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (10,317 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (2,965 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (214 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (3,948 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (13,014 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (2,736 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (139 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (5,127 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (12,950 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (1,842 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (5,506 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (6,067 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.2% expected score (1,080 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (248 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 120K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 53.9% win rate for white (20K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.3%) outperforms Classical (41.3%) by 9.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a sharpness score of 91.2 (decisive), meaning 91.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.7%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.1%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.3%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 30.8% (90% CI: 30.1%-31.4%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 49 moves with a 45.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.1%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.6%) win rate for white (69K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.8%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 46.8%-48.0%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation has a 41.3% (90% CI: 38.9%-43.7%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 24.4%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Ragozin Defense, Alekhine Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-49.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.