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Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation

1.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 55.1%Based on 1.8K games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 55.1%
Outcome Distribution
49.9%6.6%43.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation
n=1.8K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness93%
Draw Rate6.6%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation has a 53.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.3% and 55.1%), based on 1.8K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +0.3% · Breakpoint: 1600-1799

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.0% · Rapid best · Blitz worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 33% → 46%

1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 33.3% win rate (3 games)
  • 1200-1399: 86.7% win rate (6 games)
  • 1400-1599: 43.5% win rate (41 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.2% win rate (125 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.5% win rate (353 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.9% win rate (637 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.2% win rate (550 games)
  • 2500+: 45.7% win rate (74 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (61%), worst in Blitz (48%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 52.8% win rate (380 games)
  • Blitz: 47.7% win rate (1,239 games)
  • Rapid: 58.7% win rate (156 games)
  • Classical: 61.3% win rate (14 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399——
1400-1599———
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 28.8% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (39 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (75 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (51 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (262 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 64.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 77.3% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (111 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.0% expected score (64 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 80.8% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 59.0% expected score (127 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (375 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.5% expected score (46 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (53 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 51.5% win rate for white (353 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (58.7%) outperforms Blitz (47.7%) by 11.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 93.4 (decisive), meaning 93.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 42.9%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 125 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 47.1%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 353 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 46.6%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 637 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 45.7%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 550 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 48.6%-57.0%) win rate for white (380 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 45.4%-50.0%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation has a 58.7% (90% CI: 52.2%-65.1%) win rate for white (156 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Karlsbad Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.9% (90% CI: 48.0%-51.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.