2.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation has a 52.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.8% and 54.3%), based on 2.2K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 71% → 55%
Best in Blitz (50%), worst in Classical (33%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | ||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.2%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.2K rated games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 55.3% win rate for white (88 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Blitz (49.5%) outperforms Bullet (47.0%) by 2.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation has a sharpness score of 92.8 (decisive), meaning 92.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 45.9%-58.6%) win rate for white, based on 164 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 42.9%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 471 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 45.5%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 736 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 45.5%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 697 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 43.0%-51.0%) win rate for white (423 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.
In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-51.6%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.9%.
In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 43.6%-55.2%) win rate for white (198 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.2%-50.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.