Source Lichess
White wins at least 1.6% more often than loses
At All Ratings, Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation gives White a +1.6% minimum advantage (90% confidence). This gambit is playable but marginal.
| Rating | Min Adv | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1600-1799 | -4.3% | 52.3% | 3.9% | 43.8% | 164 |
| 1800-1999 | -5.8% | 46.7% | 8.4% | 45.0% | 471 |
| 2000-2199 | -3.3% | 48.5% | 5.8% | 45.8% | 736 |
| 2200-2499 | -0.2% | 48.6% | 8.8% | 42.6% | 697 |
| 2500+ | +5.3% | 55.3% | 11.7% | 33.0% | 88 |
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation breaks at 1600-1799 overall (all time controls)—the first rating bracket where White no longer statistically wins more than loses. Below this rating, the gambit is viable for White. Note: breakpoints vary by time control—use the filters above for specific data.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.2%-50.7%) win rate for White overall, with a 7.2% draw rate and 43.9% loss rate. This is based on 2.2K games from Lichess.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation performs best at 2500+, where White has a minimum advantage of +5.3%. This means we're 90% confident White wins at least 5.3 percentage points more than they lose at this rating.
Blitz (+2.7% edge) outperforms Bullet (+-9.9% edge) by 12.6 percentage points. Faster time controls typically favor gambits because opponents have less time to find accurate defenses.
Yes, significantly. Breakpoints by time control: Bullet: 1800-1999, Blitz: 1600-1799, Rapid: 1800-1999, Classical: Never. "Never" means the gambit remains viable through all rating brackets in that time control. Faster time controls typically extend viability.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation is very sharp with only 7.2% draws—92.8% of games end decisively. This makes it an excellent choice when you need to play for a win rather than accept a draw.
If you're below 1600-1799 overall, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation is statistically favorable for White. Above that rating, opponents defend better and the gambit's edge disappears. Consider your typical opponents' level and the time control—faster games extend the gambit's viability.
As Black, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Swiss, Carlsbad Variation becomes easier to defend at 1600-1799 and above. Key principles: accept the material but develop quickly, castle early, trade pieces to reduce attacking potential, and return material at the right moment to neutralize the initiative. In faster time controls, the gambit is harder to defend—consider declining or transposing if you're not prepared.
This analysis is based on 2.2K games from Lichess. All statistics include 90% confidence intervals. Generally, 300+ games provide statistically meaningful results. Rating-specific and time-control-specific breakdowns have their own sample sizes shown in the table above.