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Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation

445 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score53.6%Range (90% confident): 49.7% – 57.5%Based on 445 games
0%53.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.7% – 57.5%
Outcome Distribution
50.7%5.7%43.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
9.Bb5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation
Analyzen=445
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.7%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 53.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.7% and 57.5%), based on 445 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +6.0% · Breakpoint: 2000-2199

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 35%

1000
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 1000-1199: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1400-1599: 57.9% win rate (8 games)
  • 1600-1799: 33.3% win rate (30 games)
  • 1800-1999: 57.9% win rate (84 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.2% win rate (151 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.1% win rate (151 games)
  • 2500+: 34.9% win rate (20 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (52%), worst in Classical (33%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 48.2% win rate (68 games)
  • Blitz: 51.9% win rate (323 games)
  • Rapid: 47.5% win rate (48 games)
  • Classical: 33.3% win rate (6 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—————
1000-1199————
1200-1399—————
1400-1599———
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 63.9% expected score (56 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (116 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (24 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.1% expected score (119 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 46.8%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 445 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 57.9% win rate for white (84 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.9%) outperforms Bullet (48.2%) by 3.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 41.6%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 47.4%-60.7%) win rate for white, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 47.4%-56.5%) win rate for white (323 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation is statistically balanced with a 50.7% (90% CI: 46.8%-54.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.