Source Lichess
White isn't shown winning more often than losing at this level
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation keeps White's wins running −0.6% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 445 Lichess games. The games don't show this gambit paying at this level. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1800-1999 | +6.0% | 57.9% | 7.6% | 34.5% | 84 |
| 2000-2199 | −12.6% | 48.2% | 4.3% | 47.5% | 151 |
| 2200-2499 | −0.2% | 54.1% | 4.9% | 41.0% | 151 |
2000-2199 is where the games stop proving it. Below that, White comes out ahead; from there up, the evidence no longer shows it.
White wins 50.7% of Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation games, draws 5.7% and loses 43.6%. That rests on 445 games from Lichess.
1800-1999. There White wins at least 6.0 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
Of Bullet, Blitz, Rapid and Classical, only Blitz has enough games to read by rating. The first rating where the games do not show White coming out ahead is 2000-2199 in Blitz.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Orthodox Defense, Capablanca Variation is very sharp: 5.7% of its games are drawn, so 94.3% end with a winner.
Play it below 2000-2199. From there up, the games no longer show it paying.
As Black, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 2000-2199 and above, the games no longer show White coming out ahead with it; below that, they do.
This rests on 445 games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.