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Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation

35K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score51.7%Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 52.1%Based on 35K games
0%51.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.3% – 52.1%
Outcome Distribution
49.3%4.7%46.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6.Rc1
Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation
Analyzen=35K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.7%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 51.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.3% and 52.1%), based on 35K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +4.6% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.6% win rate (66 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.9% win rate (324 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.6% win rate (1,220 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.1% win rate (3,225 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.8% win rate (6,910 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.9% win rate (9,475 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.5% win rate (7,541 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.7% win rate (5,473 games)
  • 2500+: 49.1% win rate (1,056 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (76%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 75.8% win rate (15 games)
  • Bullet: 49.9% win rate (13,186 games)
  • Blitz: 49.0% win rate (18,348 games)
  • Rapid: 48.7% win rate (3,547 games)
  • Classical: 43.2% win rate (194 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 62.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (177 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (110 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.8% expected score (35 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (621 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (495 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (100 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 91.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,429 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (1,488 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (287 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (2,545 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (3,664 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (653 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (2,937 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (5,336 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (1,114 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.5% expected score (87 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (2,472 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (4,129 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (909 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (2,213 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (2,810 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (436 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 72.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (755 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (289 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Alapin Variation
52.1%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Balogh Variation
46.6%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation
52.9%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Albin Countergambit, Fianchetto Variation, Be6 Line
48.5%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation, Main Line
49.9%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 35K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 51.6% win rate for white (1.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.9%) outperforms Classical (43.2%) by 6.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 41.4%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 324 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 9.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.5%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.6%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 46.6%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 11.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.6%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.6%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.3%-50.1%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 37.4%-49.1%) win rate for white (194 Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.0%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Neo-Orthodox Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.