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Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit

172K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.8%Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 48.0%Based on 172K games
0%47.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.6% – 48.0%
Outcome Distribution
45.5%4.6%49.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...c6
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit
Analyzen=172K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.6%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 47.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.6% and 48.0%), based on 172K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -3.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 48% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.3% win rate (654 games)
  • 1000-1199: 46.5% win rate (1,914 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.9% win rate (4,715 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.3% win rate (10,191 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.4% win rate (21,619 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.7% win rate (40,349 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.2% win rate (45,584 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.2% win rate (38,326 games)
  • 2500+: 37.3% win rate (8,990 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.7% win rate (2,058 games)
  • Bullet: 46.5% win rate (122,655 games)
  • Blitz: 42.7% win rate (42,217 games)
  • Rapid: 45.3% win rate (5,188 games)
  • Classical: 41.9% win rate (224 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (356 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (225 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (68 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (1,109 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (606 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (175 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (89 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (2,900 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (1,303 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (410 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 58.3% expected score (400 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (6,198 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (2,879 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (672 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (461 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (13,526 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (6,567 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,026 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.2% expected score (39 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.5% expected score (494 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (26,038 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.6% expected score (12,468 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (1,292 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (57 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.3% expected score (319 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (32,460 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (11,706 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (1,052 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (47 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 40.0% expected score (243 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (31,938 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (5,679 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (444 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.2% expected score (22 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (8,130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 40.0% expected score (784 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.1% expected score (49 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 172K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.5% win rate for white (9.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (51.4%) outperforms Classical (44.1%) by 7.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.4 (very decisive), meaning 95.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 46.1%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 654 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.3%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 4.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.9%-49.6%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.7%) win rate for white (123K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.8%) win rate for white (42K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-49.7%) win rate for white (5.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit has a 44.1% (90% CI: 38.7%-49.6%) win rate for white (224 Lichess games). Draw rate is 14.0%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit is statistically favors white with a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.