Source Lichess
Black isn't shown winning more often than losing at this level
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit keeps Black's wins running −4.8% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 172K Lichess games. The games don't show this gambit paying at this level. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | Black Win | Draw | Black Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | −10.9% | 46.3% | 2.7% | 50.9% | 675 |
| 1000-1199 | −9.8% | 45.9% | 2.2% | 51.9% | 1.9K |
| 1200-1399 | −6.7% | 46.5% | 2.7% | 50.8% | 4.7K |
| 1400-1599 | −3.3% | 47.7% | 2.9% | 49.4% | 10K |
| 1600-1799 | −4.5% | 46.6% | 3.3% | 50.1% | 22K |
| 1800-1999 | −5.3% | 45.8% | 3.9% | 50.2% | 40K |
| 2000-2199 | −5.0% | 45.6% | 4.6% | 49.8% | 46K |
| 2200-2499 | −6.0% | 44.6% | 5.6% | 49.8% | 39K |
| 2500+ | −8.0% | 42.2% | 9.4% | 48.4% | 8.6K |
Not shown to be. Black does not come out ahead at any rating we can see: its best Edge at worst, at 1400-1599, is −3.3%.
Black wins 45.5% of Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit games, draws 4.6% and loses 49.9%. That rests on 172K games from Lichess.
No rating in these games shows it paying. Black's Edge at worst is highest at 1400-1599: −3.3%, how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident.
Rapid. For Black, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is −9.5% in Blitz (42K games) and −5.5% in Rapid (5.2K games). In neither do the games show Black winning more than losing.
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show Black coming out ahead is 0-999 in Bullet, 0-999 in Blitz, 0-999 in Rapid and 1600-1799 in Classical.
The Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense, Tan Gambit is extremely sharp: 4.6% of its games are drawn, so 95.4% end with a winner.
Not for the results: Black does not come out ahead at any rating we can see.
As White, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. Black does not come out ahead with it at any rating we can see.
This rests on 172K games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.